Owlii track record
A warning is only worth something if it fires before the damage. This page is the scored record: for every casino event we know of, whether Owlii's warning state was raised beforehand and by how many days — plus the false-positive rate on casinos where nothing happened.
events evaluated0
median lead time—
false-positive rate10%
Brier score0.027
as of 2026-09-16
Calibration
| Bin | Predicted | Observed | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| severe | 60% | 0% | 40 |
| warning | 30% | 0% | 1 |
| notice | 10% | 0% | 42 |
| none | 3% | 0% | 493 |
Limits
Forum trajectories reconstruct back to the oldest fetched post; AskGamblers, Trustpilot, terms and licence only from their first snapshot. Complaints resolved after a date count as open at that date (conservative). Today's classifier labels are applied to old posts. Sweep step 15 days over 365 days.
