What Are Prediction Markets?

Kalshi vs Polymarket is one of the biggest comparisons in the world of prediction markets right now. Both platforms let people trade on future events, but they do it in very different ways. Before diving into which one might be right for you, it helps to understand what a prediction market actually is. Prediction markets are basically exchanges where people trade contracts tied to future events. Each one boils down to a yes-or-no question, like “Will Candidate X win the election?” The price of the contract sits somewhere between $0 and $1, and that price is really just the crowd’s guess at how likely the event is. If the event happens, each “yes” contract pays out a dollar. If it doesn’t, it’s worth nothing.

What makes these markets interesting is how quickly they react. As news breaks or public opinion shifts, traders buy and sell, and the price adjusts to reflect the new odds. It’s like watching probability move in real time. In fact, research has shown that prediction markets can often be more accurate than polls because they combine what lots of people know and put money behind.

You can find markets on just about anything: politics, sports, entertainment, even the economy. They matter because they give everyone a chance to put their view of the future into a trade instead of just answering a survey. For example, if a market says there’s a 70 percent chance of rain tomorrow, that number is really a mix of weather data, forecasts, and traders’ instincts.

In the last few years, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have made prediction markets more accessible to regular people. They let you trade on all sorts of questions, from interest rates and elections to whether a blockbuster movie will cross a billion dollars at the box office. By 2024 and 2025, the growth was explosive, with political and sports markets alone driving hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume every month.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Two Platforms, One Idea

Let’s take a closer look at the two platforms.

Kalshi is a regulated exchange based in New York. It launched in 2021 and focuses on what it calls “event contracts,” which trade a lot like mini futures. You pick an outcome, such as “Will inflation rise above 5% in Q4?” and then buy “Yes” or “No” shares. Kalshi is licensed as a Designated Contract Market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, so it follows the same rulebook as traditional financial exchanges. That regulation also means it is mainly for U.S. users. You need proper ID to sign up, and all trading is done in U.S. dollars.

Polymarket, on the other hand, was built out of the crypto world. It started in 2020 and runs on Ethereum, with Polygon used for scaling. It also lets you trade yes/no questions on everything from elections to crypto prices, but it does this in a peer-to-peer environment. Instead of a central exchange, you use USDC stablecoins on a blockchain-based order book. Polymarket does not act as the house and it does not hold your money, it is decentralized. Everything stays in your crypto wallet, and trades are settled directly between users on-chain. For a while, Americans were locked out after a 2022 CFTC action, but in late 2025 the platform got the green light to return to the U.S. by acquiring a licensed exchange.

In simple terms, Kalshi looks and feels like a traditional U.S. exchange with dollar deposits and heavy regulation. Polymarket is crypto-native, built for wallets and stablecoins. Both let you trade on real-world events, but the technology, the rules, and even the audiences they attract are very different.

How the Markets Work

Both Kalshi and Polymarket are built around the same basic idea: binary outcome contracts. You are essentially betting on a yes or no answer to a specific question. On Kalshi, staff or approved users create markets that ask these yes/no questions with clear settlement rules. If you believe the outcome will be “Yes,” you buy a share at the current market price. Prices are quoted in cents, so if “Yes” is trading at 30¢ it means the market is suggesting a 30 percent chance of that outcome. If the event happens, the share pays out one dollar. If not, you lose what you paid. There is no leverage or margin, you can only lose what you put in.

Polymarket works on the same principle but relies on blockchain mechanics. You trade yes/no shares priced between 0 and 1 USDC, and the two sides always add up to one. Instead of using a centralized exchange, Polymarket operates on a decentralized order book. You connect a web3 wallet such as MetaMask, keep your USDC there, and post trades on-chain. This setup means Polymarket never holds your funds and every trade is peer-to-peer. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement to take profit or cut losses. Kalshi, on the other hand, works like a stock exchange where your money sits in your account and the central platform matches orders.

From a user’s perspective, Kalshi vs Polymarket looks similar. You pick an event, see “Yes” and “No” prices, and decide what to buy or sell. A contract priced at 0.30 reflects the crowd’s view that the outcome has a 30 percent chance. The difference comes down to who manages the trades. Kalshi runs a regulated exchange that holds your funds, while Polymarket runs everything on the blockchain and leaves funds in your wallet.

Regulation and Availability

One of the biggest contrasts in Kalshi vs Polymarket comes down to regulation and where each platform is available.

Kalshi is fully regulated by the U.S. government. It holds the status of a Designated Contract Market with the CFTC, the same agency that oversees futures and options. To get there, Kalshi had to file formal rulebooks, meet liquidity standards, and submit to regular oversight. The benefit is clear rules and legal certainty. In 2024, Kalshi even won a federal court case that allowed it to list election markets, such as who will control Congress. CEO Tarek Mansour called it a new era of regulated political betting, with limits as high as $100 million on election contracts. In practice, Kalshi is only available to Americans. To sign up you need a Social Security number and a government-issued ID, which locks out non-U.S. residents.

Polymarket’s story is almost the opposite. Because it was built on blockchain, it launched as a global platform. That worked until U.S. regulators stepped in. In 2022, the CFTC forced Polymarket to shut down access to Americans and fined the company for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange. Traders outside the U.S. continued to use it, but for Americans the door was closed. In September 2025, Polymarket announced its way back into the U.S. by purchasing a licensed exchange and securing a CFTC no-action letter. The CEO even tweeted that Polymarket was officially authorized to relaunch in the U.S., marking a major comeback.

So in the Kalshi vs Polymarket debate, the geographic footprint tells an interesting story. Kalshi has always been U.S.-only. Its regulatory framework lets any American trade event markets from anywhere in the country, even in states that ban traditional sports betting. Polymarket, on the other hand, built its base internationally and only recently reopened to U.S. users. For years, Americans had Kalshi while the rest of the world leaned on Polymarket. Now both are finally available in the United States, but they still come from very different regulatory backgrounds.

Technology: Centralized vs. Blockchain

When looking at Kalshi vs Polymarket, the technology behind each platform is one of the clearest differences.

Kalshi works like a traditional financial exchange. It is a centralized platform with its own servers and database. To trade, you create an account, connect a U.S. bank or debit card, and place orders directly through Kalshi’s system. Everything is settled in U.S. dollars, and the company charges transaction fees to cover costs. Behind the scenes it looks very similar to a futures or options desk, except the contracts are tied to unusual events instead of stocks or commodities. The interface is clean and easy to use on both web and mobile, but all the data and balances live on Kalshi’s servers.

Polymarket is a different story because it runs on blockchain. It uses Ethereum with Polygon for scaling, which means every trade is recorded on-chain. When you place an order on Polymarket you are signing a blockchain transaction. Importantly, you keep control of your money. The platform never holds your funds. Instead, your USDC stays in your wallet and trades are settled peer-to-peer on the network. This setup makes the system transparent and removes single points of failure, but it also means you depend on crypto infrastructure. You need USDC to trade, and every deposit, withdrawal, or trade involves blockchain transfers and small gas fees.

Technology also shapes speed and costs in Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi’s centralized engine can match trades instantly at any time of day, much like a stock exchange. On Polymarket, speed depends on how fast the blockchain confirms your trade. Polygon is relatively quick, so most transactions clear in seconds, but it is still slower than an internal exchange engine. On Kalshi you see live order books and charts that look like traditional finance. On Polymarket, you interact through a web app that shows prices, but every action ultimately goes on-chain.

Markets and Topics Offered

When looking at Kalshi vs Polymarket, both platforms cover a wide range of topics, but they lean in very different directions.

• Kalshi mixes finance with mainstream culture. You’ll find markets on economic indicators like inflation, unemployment, or interest rate decisions, along with weather events such as hurricanes. It even dips into pop culture with questions about the Oscars, streaming milestones, and album sales. Sports and politics have become huge on the platform. In 2025, NFL markets exploded in popularity, and Kalshi now runs fully regulated election markets covering the presidency, Congress, and Senate races. CEO Tarek Mansour has pointed out that NBA basketball and NFL football are some of their biggest drivers of volume. Overall, Kalshi tends to stick with major U.S. events that appeal to a broad audience.
• Polymarket feels more global and crypto-oriented. It also lists political, economic, and climate-related markets, but goes deeper into areas like cryptocurrency and technology. It is common to see bets on Bitcoin’s price, blockchain milestones, or tech industry rumors. International politics and conflicts show up regularly, while sports and entertainment are present but play a smaller role compared to politics and crypto. Polymarket allows users to suggest markets, so the platform often reacts quickly to whatever is in the news, whether that’s a new AI breakthrough, a global event, or even a viral tweet. Its topics menu includes categories like Crypto, Politics, Sports, Pop Culture, Tech, and AI, which shows how broad the scope can be.

The takeaway on Kalshi vs Polymarket:  Kalshi focuses on U.S. politics, sports, and financial events, while Polymarket has a wider, international flavor with a heavy dose of crypto and tech. Both let you trade on real-world yes/no questions, but Kalshi feels more like Wall Street meets betting, while Polymarket feels more like crypto Twitter turned into a marketplace.

User Experience and Interface

When it comes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, the experience of using each platform feels very different

Kalshi looks and works like a traditional exchange. You sign up with an email and password, verify your identity, and you’re in. The dashboard and mobile app are polished and easy to navigate, with markets laid out in charts and an order book. To place a trade you just click “Yes” or “No” on a contract. Funding your account is simple if you’re in the U.S.: you can use a bank transfer, a debit card, or even crypto that Kalshi converts into dollars through a partner. Deposits show up in your account balance, and from there trades are instant. There are no blockchain gas fees, only Kalshi’s small transaction fees when orders are matched. The overall experience feels a lot like using an online brokerage account.

Polymarket works in a more crypto-native way. You don’t register with a typical email and password. Instead, you connect a wallet like MetaMask or create a Polymarket wallet linked to your email. You’ll need USDC, the stablecoin, to trade. That means either buying it through an exchange or through an on-ramp like MoonPay, which charges around 3.5 percent. Once you have USDC in your wallet, you can start trading, but each trade is a blockchain transaction. You approve it, pay a small gas fee, and the order gets written to the chain. The interface shows prices and markets much like Kalshi does, but behind the scenes everything is happening on Ethereum’s Polygon network.

From a usability standpoint, Kalshi vs Polymarket highlights the trade-off between simplicity and decentralization. For someone new to crypto, Kalshi is definitely the easier option. You log in, deposit dollars, and trade. Polymarket asks for more technical know-how with wallets, stablecoins, and gas fees. On the flip side, Polymarket feels more modern and social. It has features like commenting on markets and a live feed of new questions that give it a community-driven vibe. Kalshi is more straightforward and professional, with graphs and leaderboards but little in the way of social interaction. In terms of speed, Kalshi executes trades instantly on its servers, while Polymarket takes a second or two for the blockchain to confirm. Polygon is quick, so it’s rarely a big delay, but the difference is noticeable.

Liquidity, Volume, and Fees

When it comes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, two things really matter for traders: how easy it is to enter and exit positions, and what it costs to trade.

Kalshi charges fees on every trade. Instead of a flat rate, it takes a percentage of your potential profit. On average, about 7 percent of the upside goes to fees. So if you buy $100 worth of “Yes” at 30 cents, which could return $70 if it hits, Kalshi will take around $4.90. Deposits and withdrawals also carry small costs, like $2 for a bank withdrawal.

Polymarket takes a different approach. It doesn’t charge trading fees at all. There are no costs to deposit, withdraw, or buy shares on the platform itself. The only expenses come from outside, like Ethereum gas fees or credit card fees if you buy USDC through a third-party service.

In terms of trading activity, both platforms have exploded in the last couple of years. Polymarket went viral during the 2024 election, with weekly volume jumping into the hundreds of millions. Business Insider reported that in October 2024 alone, nearly $2 billion was traded on Polymarket. Kalshi started smaller, but it caught fire during the 2025 NFL season, when $441 million traded in just one week of football markets. That number nearly matched all the election volume it saw in 2024. As of 2025, both platforms move hundreds of millions of dollars every month, though Polymarket still tends to pull the bigger numbers thanks to global politics and crypto-driven markets.

Liquidity is another area where Kalshi vs Polymarket differ. Polymarket relies heavily on community interest. It has even run liquidity mining programs to encourage traders to keep the order books deep. Kalshi leans on professional market makers. Hedge fund Susquehanna began providing liquidity in 2024, and Robinhood integrated Kalshi’s engine into its own app in 2025. Kalshi also has a trading affiliate that steps in when markets are thin.

The bottom line: Kalshi users pay fees on trades but enjoy straightforward deposits and withdrawals through banks and debit cards. Polymarket users avoid platform fees but face the realities of crypto: gas fees, card purchase costs, and the need to manage stablecoins. Savvy Polymarket traders often dodge the higher card fees by buying USDC on an exchange and transferring it in, which is usually cheaper.

Community and Reputation

The vibe around each platform is very different.

Kalshi positions itself as a serious, regulated exchange. It is often described as “Wall Street meets betting.” The company is backed by big-name investors like Sequoia, Paradigm, and Citadel’s CEO, which adds to its image of legitimacy. Mainstream media has covered Kalshi in a generally positive light, especially when it fought to launch election markets. Many users see its regulatory oversight as a major plus because it feels safe and comes with protections like dispute resolution and customer support. On the flip side, some people dismiss Kalshi as nothing more than legalized gambling. Critics, including some policymakers, have even called prediction markets “digital casinos.” The founders counter that it is closer to a hedging tool, a way for investors to manage risk. While still new, Kalshi has built a reputation as the go-to regulated prediction market.

Polymarket has a very different reputation, mostly shaped by the crypto community.  When people talk about Kalshi vs Polymarket, this difference in culture is usually the first thing mentioned. It is praised as an innovative, decentralized marketplace that proves prediction markets can work without a central authority. Traders range from crypto enthusiasts to data nerds and even academics. The platform also became famous for hosting “whale” traders, including one who reportedly put $30 million on a U.S. election outcome. That kind of attention boosted its profile but also highlighted the risks. Early on, Polymarket ran into regulatory trouble and was banned from the U.S. for a while. It has also faced small bumps like high gas fees during network congestion or disputes over how certain markets were resolved. Even so, many users love Polymarket for its openness and neutrality. It feels more like a cutting-edge crypto app than a traditional finance product. Today, it is often called the world’s largest prediction market, and its odds on events like the Trump vs. Harris race in 2024 have been widely quoted in the media.

In short, Kalshi is carving out a mainstream, regulated identity, while Polymarket embraces its role as the adventurous, crypto-native alternative.

Accessibility (KYC, Payments, etc.)

When comparing Kalshi vs Polymarket, accessibility is one of the biggest differences.

Kalshi feels like a traditional financial platform, and that shows in how you sign up and fund your account. Because it is regulated, you must go through full identity verification. That means being at least 18, having a U.S. address, providing government-issued ID, and entering a Social Security number. In short, you need to be a U.S. citizen or resident to use Kalshi.

Once you’re verified, funding is straightforward:

• Bank transfer (ACH): Free, but takes a couple of days.

• Debit card: Instant, including Apple Pay and Google Pay, but there is a 2% fee.

• Wire transfers: Allowed, though you have to include the proper memo code so it gets credited correctly.

• Crypto deposits: Possible through a partner service (ZeroHash), which converts your crypto into USD on the spot.

Withdrawals are just as standard. You can cash out by bank transfer (with a $2 ACH fee), debit, or even convert back to crypto through ZeroHash. Overall, Kalshi’s payment system feels a lot like any other U.S.-based financial service, with all the usual compliance and oversight.

Polymarket takes a much looser approach. If you already hold crypto, you don’t need to submit any ID. You just connect your Ethereum wallet (like MetaMask) and start trading with USDC. There is no KYC if you fund your account directly with stablecoins. Polymarket’s own docs emphasize that they don’t check your identity unless you use fiat on-ramps.

Funding options include:

• Crypto deposits: If you already have USDC, you can send it from an exchange like Coinbase or Crypto.com straight into Polymarket. No ID check, just a blockchain transfer and network gas fees.

• Card purchases: Through third-party providers like MoonPay. This is convenient but pricey, with about a 3.5% fee plus a small fixed charge. You’ll also need to complete KYC with the provider.

• Peer-to-peer transfers or exchanges: Many users buy USDC elsewhere and move it in, which usually avoids high card fees.

For most of its history, Polymarket was wide open to international users but off-limits to Americans. That changed in late 2025 when it regained U.S. access through a licensed exchange acquisition. For non-U.S. users, access has mostly been unrestricted unless their country has banned crypto or online gambling.

In short, Kalshi vs Polymarket comes down to compliance versus convenience. Kalshi feels like opening a brokerage account, with strict IDs and banking details required. Polymarket keeps to the crypto ethos of “just connect your wallet,” offering more freedom but with added complexity for newcomers.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Pros and Cons of Each

When weighing Kalshi vs Polymarket, each platform brings a very different set of strengths and drawbacks.

• Kalshi Pros:

  • Regulated and Legal: Operates under U.S. law with CFTC oversight. No legal gray area.

  • Fiat-Friendly: Deposit with bank or card in dollars, no need to buy crypto.

  • High Limits: Allows large bets (up to tens of thousands per contract, even up to $100M on elections). No tiny “tiny-bets-only” restrictions.

  • Fast Settlement: Trades match instantly on the exchange without blockchain delays.

  • Mobile App: Has user-friendly web and mobile apps (in fact the app topped finance charts during elections).

  • Transparency and Disputes: Since it’s regulated, it must clearly define settlement rules, and you have a legal framework if something goes wrong.

• Kalshi Cons:

  • Restricted to US: Only U.S. residents can use it; others are locked out.

  • Fees: Charges transaction fees (~7% of expected profit) and a 2% fee on debit deposits.

  • Limited Market Scope: Tends to focus on mainstream, U.S.-centric topics (though still broad). You won’t find exotic crypto predictions.

  • KYC and Limits: Must go through full ID verification (no anonymity). Withdrawals and deposits are subject to trading hours and banking rules.

  • Liquidity Hotspots: Popular contracts (like NFL spreads) are very liquid, but obscure ones can be thin despite efforts by market makers.

• Polymarket Pros:

  • No Trading Fees: Zero commission on trades, and no house edge beyond spreads.

  • Global Access: Anyone worldwide (with internet/crypto) can trade almost any market.

  • Wide Variety: Covers crypto, world politics, tech, etc. Very flexible.

  • Wallet-Controlled Funds: Users keep custody of funds; if Polymarket vanished, you still have your crypto.

  • Sell Anytime: Full flexibility to exit a position anytime on-chain (like an unlimited book).

  • Innovation and Community: Cutting-edge vibe, and markets often respond to breaking news very quickly.

• Polymarket Cons:

  • No Fiat; Crypto Only: You must buy or hold USDC. This excludes casual users and adds the step of crypto conversion.

  • Network Fees: Each trade requires a blockchain transaction, meaning small gas costs (though on Polygon it’s only cents).

  • Regulatory Uncertainty: Until recently, U.S. users were banned. Even now, its legal status requires workarounds (QCX). Non-U.S. users may face local gambling laws.

  • Volatility of Stablecoin: USDC is pegged to USD, but if any glitch happens (e.g. USDC depeg risk), contracts’ backing could be affected (though USDC is generally reliable).

  • Learning Curve: Newcomers may find wallets, tokens, and confirmations confusing compared to a normal login.

  • Market Integrity: Since it’s permissionless, bogus or low-quality markets can be launched (though Polymarket has a reviewing team). Also, major single traders can dominate a market (as happened with the big election “whale”).

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which to Choose?

When it comes to choosing between Kalshi vs Polymarket, the right platform really depends on who you are as a trader.

If you’re based in the U.S. and want a smooth, regulated experience, Kalshi is the straightforward choice. It feels like a brokerage account: you deposit dollars, trade on a clean platform, and benefit from strong legal protections. It shines for people who want to trade on U.S. politics, sports, or economic events without touching crypto. The trade-off is that you pay standard trading fees.

If you’re more crypto-savvy and prefer zero platform fees, Polymarket may be the better fit. It offers a wide variety of global topics, with special strength in crypto and international news. The catch is you’ll need to be comfortable buying USDC on an exchange and managing your own wallet. Now that Polymarket is opening back up to U.S. users, it’s becoming even more attractive.

Looking at Kalshi vs Polymarket side by side, both,  platforms let you sell early to lock in profits or cut losses, and both tap into the wisdom of crowds by turning opinions into tradable odds. Kalshi’s community leans toward financial and political media, while Polymarket’s thrives in crypto forums and on Twitter.

No matter which platform you pick, remember that prediction markets are speculative and risky. It’s smart to start small, learn the ropes, and never stake more than you’re willing to lose. At the end of the day, you’re not just betting, you’re trading on the future.